I predict that President Barack Obama will win over Mitt Romney narrowly and here’s how


Barack Obama will be staying on in the White House according to Larry

Writing a column like this with more than ten days to go is inherently risky. But based on the polling data I’ve been examining, the Electoral College math I’ve been doing and the political instincts I’ve always relied upon, I have a theory of how this year’s extremely close fight for the presidency between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney might unfold when the votes are tallied into the wee hours on election night.

The truth is that I never envisaged that the election would be this close. The president’s disastrous performance in the first televised debate, and Governor’s Romney’s strong showing that night, put paid to my ideas about how things would play out. On that night, Governor Romney appeared to be presidential and a centrist. He undoubtedly appealed to those Americans who were only then tuning in to the campaign.

I had written and said in a number of different fora that I believed Florida would be pivotal to the outcome this year. Specifically, my view was that, if the president were to win Florida, he would prevail in an Electoral College landslide. On the other hand, if Governor Romney were to pull off a victory there, then I believed that President Obama’s path to the 270 Electoral College votes he would need to be re-elected would become less straightforward, yet nearly as certain.

Needless to say, the first debate and the consequential movement in the polls in key battleground states forced me to readjust my calculus.  Some commentators, particularly those who favour Governor Romney’s election, have incorrectly relied on national polls in support of their view that both the first debate and the fuller attention being paid to the candidates and the issues by the electorate wholly changed the dynamics of the race.

The first debate and the broader electorate’s heightened focus unquestionably made things tighter. National polls, however, are inherently misleading in US presidential elections and the wild divergences in these polls reflect this reality. Making predictions as to a result based on national polls verges on the nonsensical.

So where does this lead me? And why do I think that Republican-leaning commentators, many of whom now believe that Mitt Romney is likely to be the next president, are wrong?

My fundamental starting point is that the following states – in roughly counter-clockwise order from the northeast and followed by their number of Electoral College votes – can still be regarded as “in play”: New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (16), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13).  The dye is fairly well cast in the other 39 states, and barring something completely unforeseen, will leave President Obama with a 10 vote lead, 201-191, over Governor Romney.

The aforementioned mix of data, math and instinct tells me the following.

Obama will win Pennsylvania and Romney will win North Carolina.  I suspect somewhat less strongly that Obama will take Michigan and Wisconsin.  I have a similarly formed suspicion that Romney will take Virginia and New Hampshire.  That would leave things at 247 votes for the incumbent and 223 votes for the challenger.

And here is where hunches come in.  My hunch is that Nevada and Iowa will break for Obama.  On the other side, my hunch is that Colorado and, yes, Florida will break for Romney.  My Obama hunches are shaped by my sense of Nevada’s demographics and by Iowa’s still strong populist streak.  My Romney hunches are a product, especially in Florida, of polling data and numbers I find very surprising, but which are difficult to refute, notwithstanding my contrary instincts.  Governor Romney and his campaign deserve a lot of credit if this is borne out on November 6th.

They recognized, from the earliest days of the campaign, that they would need to win Florida to win the presidency.  To this end, and despite tacking hard-right on just about everything else in the Republican primary, Governor Romney steadfastly defended Social Security.  The comments of his primary opponent, Texas Governor Rick Perry, likening the government programme on which so many Florida-based retirees depend to a “Ponzi scheme,” were a gift in this regard.  Moreover, the repeated statements of fidelity to Israel and oft-touted friendship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were meant to be heard by Florida’s large Jewish community.  They lean Democratic, but have never trusted the president on Israel.

If Romney does indeed win Florida – it is far from certain that he will – it will be by a very narrow margin.  And it will be due in no small part to this shrewd posturing on issues that matter to Floridians whose votes were identified at an early stage as being “in play.”

A Romney victory in Florida, coupled with my other hunches being on the money, would put him in the lead by two votes, 261-259.  In my analysis, Ohio would then remain to determine who will be the next president.

While polls show the two candidates in a virtual dead heat, I just can’t see Governor Romney winning Ohio for two reasons.  First is the extraordinary ground game and get out the vote operation that the Obama re-election team have put together there.  Some elements never really went away after 2008, and media reports are that absolutely everything possible has been done to ensure that their voters, particularly African-Americans, exercise their right to vote.  Early voting, which is now in full swing, will be crucial.

Second is Governor Romney’s past as a venture capitalist with Bain Capital. Hard-hitting and evidently relentless ads in Ohio highlight his complicity in the demise of companies and the concomitant loss of livelihoods of thousands of working men and women.  This makes garnering the votes of blue collar workers and ethnic Catholics, whose support Romney will need to win the state, a far more difficult task.

Accordingly, as of now, my prediction is that President Obama will win 275 Electoral College votes and secure a second term.  I may well be wrong.  I believe, however, that my error could just as likely lie in underestimating the scale of the president’s triumph as in picking the wrong winner.  We shall soon see.

– – – –

via I predict that President Barack Obama will win over Mitt Romney narrowly and here’s how | Boston Irishman in Ireland | IrishCentral.

via I predict that President Barack Obama will win over Mitt Romney narrowly and here’s how | Boston Irishman in Ireland | IrishCentral.

Advertisements

About Old Boy

Love the past and the future but live in the present

Posted on October 27, 2012, in US Election and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

The Comic Vault

Unlock your inner geek and step inside!

sandsoftime10

A peep into Megha's mind

Education Motivation Inspiration

Warm welcome! This is more than an exploration. Discovery of new ideas and new ways of being.

EXPLORING FOR KNOWLEDGE.

REASONING IS THE FOUNDATION.

Perfect-Style-Knower

"Vulgarity is born in the perverse gaze of one who judges it so!"

THE BOOKS THAT TIME FORGOT.

Reviewing books that time has passed by.

Peach6972's Re🤗Blog🥀

lonly n depress😢🐘make my day 🌷⚘

outofwak (artworldwar)

we are all empty circles, through which the creative power of the universe passes through, whether we like it or not..

Why'd Multiple Sclerosis pick me

My Life with Multiple SCLEROSIS

Windows on Worlds

Because you speak to me in words and I look at you with feelings

Crackdown Review

A place to search something like movie, anime, novel, manga, etc. reviews

Dave's Corner of the Universe

Where strange fact and stranger fiction collide

Trust and Believe in the Unseen

Live with Light of Faith

#FILMose

Crítica para quem gosta de Cinema.

Gaston Bessette, Photographie

La passion de la photo-Photographs as a passion

hands in the garden

short poems, for short attention spans.

Empowered

Everyday

Iain Kelly

Fiction Writing

The Müscleheaded Blog

"Nothing Exceeds Like Superfluous Jejunity "

After the Final Curtain

"People buy tickets to theatres, not movies." -- Marcus Loew

cracked rear viewer

Fresh takes on retro pop culture

indiescifi451.wordpress.com/

science fiction autopsy. movie reviews, books, quotes, posters. no trash. no bullshit.

Roadtirement

"Retired and traveling"

Thereisnocavalry

Creativity, ideas, art, literature, design, film, screenplays, poetry

The diary of a Blacksheep

#diary #love #life and other #twistedthings

Mystic Land

Let's mend the broken

HEALTHY LIFESTYLE

I CAN'T CONTROL EVERYTHING IN MY LIFE, BUT I CAN CONTROL WHAT I PUT IN MY BODY.😎🍓🍍🍇🍑🍐🍉🍈🍏🍊🍋🍅🍎🍌🍠🍢🍥

Saranya

Normal thoughts but unique view

David, earth planet , knopfler and a humble man

Amante libros, música y viajes A bookworm and lover of tunes and wayfarer

Web Dietitian

Debunking myths and uncovering the truth on food and nutrition by a Registered Dietitian

inpuntadipiedinaturalmente

dai rimedi naturali fatti in casa alla riflessologia

thepracticalhistorian

Your guide to practically true history.

MadhviMuses

Read Books, Chase Butterflies, Eat Breakfasts,Love Life!

La Rioja and the world seen from my guardaviñas

Sharing ideas. Photos, travels, music, History, stories,...

The Visualizer

Reinforcing creativity with tech

Manić Teodora

Jer ono u šta ljudi poveruju, to će vremenom i postati.❤ Because in what people belive, that's who they will become as the time passes by. ❤

Ultimatetravel

I haven’t been everywhere, but it’s on my list.

Yes, I Know

The movies wouldn't lie to me... would they?

%d bloggers like this: