The Irish bail-out programme: The meaning of exit


WHEN tapes of conversations between senior executives at the failed Anglo Irish Bank at the height of the financial crisis in 2008 were leaked in June, Irish credibility as a true penitent among the five bailed-out euro-zone countries took a knock. At last month’s European summit Angela Merkel, the German chancellor who calls the shots in the 17-state currency block, expressed her contempt for the bankers’ conduct, which included crass anti-German sentiment.

But any fears that this unwelcome reminder of past sins and sinners might upset Ireland’s path to exit from the rescue programme have been short-lived. This week’s review by the troika – the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF – concluded that Ireland should be able to leave on schedule by the end of 2013. That’s precisely three years after fiscal and banking woes forced the Irish to go cap in hand for €67 billion ($87 billion) of official loans from Europe and the IMF.

A punctual Irish exit has seemed likely for some time if only to show that the German-inspired programmes of austerity and structural reform can work. The worse things get in other bailed-out countries – Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Spain (for its banks) – the more that Ireland is favoured. Thus Portugal’s recent political ructions, which has caused the planned inspection by the troika on July 15th to be postponed, have strengthened Ireland’s hand.

Moreover, Irish debt managers have deftly exploited chances to raise funds as Ireland’s fiscal credibility improved and its bond yields subsided. They have benefited along with the other crisis countries from the ECB’s commitment last September to make unlimited purchases of bonds in secondary markets under strict conditions – its “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMT) programme, which has proved so successful a deterrent that it has not yet been used. Helped by the debt-management agency’s forays into the markets, the Irish government is now fully funded into early 2015.

That’s handy because on the economic front things haven’t been going so smoothly. Irish cheerleaders can no longer brag about their country being a bright spot in the recessionary gloom on the euro-zone southern and western periphery. In fact, GDP has shrunk for three consecutive quarters (the second half of last year and the first quarter of 2013) as exports have been hit first by a slowdown in global trade and secondly by the lapsing of patents on blockbuster drugs that have hurt pharmaceutical exports. The budget deficit remains high at 7.5% of GDP and public debt will reach 124% this year, a figure that underestimates the effective burden because a big chunk of Irish GDP is profits made by foreign multinationals which are lightly taxed.

The Irish government thus has good reasons to be nervous about having to fend for itself. That’s why Michael Noonan, the finance minister, is angling for a backstop to be available after the bail-out ends. But it is not just a credit line that the Irish are seeking: they want to be eligible for the ECB’s OMT programme.

That will be possible, however, only if the Irish apply to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the eurozone’s bail-out fund, for an “enhanced conditions” credit line. The Irish argue that there would be no need to comply with extra conditions, but whether the other euro-zone finance ministers who are on the board of the ESM will concur remains to be seen. Ireland may find that the best it can secure is a deal where it is still subject to intrusive monitoring.

If all goes to plan the Irish exit from its ignominious bail-out at the end of this year will be hailed as a big success. But the reality will be fuzzier. The official funding may end but the price of support remaining available if necessary is that Ireland will not secure full independence.

via The Irish bail-out programme: The meaning of exit | The Economist.

Advertisements

About Old Boy

Love the past and the future but live in the present

Posted on July 20, 2013, in Banking, buisiness, EU, Germany, IMF/ECB, Ireland, politics and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

sorryless

great vengeance and furious anger served piping hot!

let me photograph you softly

photographs on the street

| SCRIPTEUM |

Blog de escritura

Sally.CS

"Érase una vez una gitana, que escribía historias de amor"

territori del '900

identità luoghi scritture del '900 toscano

fountain hues

the journey of a poetry

Flavorful Delights

A collection of recipes, food inspirations, and finding joy in cooking

Cafė com filosofia

A verdade existe!

From 1 Blogger 2 Another

Sharing Great Blog Posts

A Better Man

Make a Start

johncoyote

Poetry, story and real life.

passaporte no bolso

blogue de viagens

Art Bacchant

drunk on the arts

optimisticlifeat30

The essence of Poetry

Fun Freedom Fables

Stay happy, think positive & live life to the fullest

The Rolling Paper Company

Rolling papers for customized cigarettes has developed from rolling tobacco and weed in dried leaves of trees to rolling them in a paper.

andycritiques

Film & Television Reviews From The Perspective Of A Film & Televison Lover

Truth Troubles

Why people hate the truths of the world.

The Culture Tome

An Online Journal For Appreciating The Past

The Comic Vault

Unlock your inner geek and step inside!

sandsoftime10

A peep into Megha's mind

Education Motivation Inspiration

Warm welcome! This is more than an exploration. Discovery of new ideas and new ways of being.

EXPLORING FOR KNOWLEDGE.

REASONING IS THE FOUNDATION.

Perfect-Style-Knower

Visual Perception- Hot Edgy Erotica Site

THE BOOKS THAT TIME FORGOT.

Reviewing books that time has passed by.

Peach6972's Re🤗Blog🥀

lonly n depress😢🐘make my day 🌷⚘

outofwak (artworldwar)

we are all empty circles, through which the creative power of the universe passes through, whether we like it or not..

Why'd Multiple Sclerosis pick me

My Life with Multiple SCLEROSIS

Windows on Worlds

Because you speak to me in words and I look at you with feelings

Crackdown Review

A place to search something like movie, anime, novel, manga, etc. reviews

Dave's Corner of the Universe

Where strange fact and stranger fiction collide

Trust and Believe in the Unseen

Live with Light of Faith

#FILMose

Crítica para quem gosta de Cinema.

Gaston Bessette, Photographie

La passion de la photo-Photographs as a passion

hands in the garden

short poems for short attention spans

Empowered

Everyday

Iain Kelly

Fiction Writing

The Müscleheaded Blog

"Nothing Exceeds Like Superfluous Jejunity "

After the Final Curtain

"People buy tickets to theatres, not movies." -- Marcus Loew

cracked rear viewer

Fresh takes on retro pop culture

indiescifi451.wordpress.com/

science fiction autopsy. movie reviews, books, quotes, posters. no trash. no bullshit.

%d bloggers like this: